Today saw the latest YouGov poll for The Times. Its publication, with just a month to go in the referendum, marked the 45th different poll published on Scottish independence in 2014.
The results of today’s poll are:
Yes — 38% (+3)
No — 51% (-4)
Undecideds — 11% (+1)
The results represent the highest point for a Yes vote yet, whilst No polled 51% back in May.
The weekend saw two more polls. One from Panelbase commissioned by Yes Scotland and an ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday.
The Panelbase result:
Yes — 42% (+1)
No — 46% (-2)
Undecideds — 12% (+1)
Panelbase polls have largely been one of the most sympathetic to Yes support, with the gap between Yes and No being quite close and tightening since February. Better Together will take comfort from the fact that this isn’t the first time that the gap between Yes and No has been this close.
ICM:
Yes — 38% (+4)
No — 47% (+2)
Undecideds — 14 (-7)
ICM was Better Together’s best result of the weekend, with a two point gain, which was dwarfed by Yes’ four point gain to 38%. The most notable part of this poll has been the drop in Undecideds, with almost a third moving in the last month.
Interestingly, what these three polls demonstrate is that the first television debate wasn’t the great defeat for Yes that much of the media believed it to be, with some of Yes’ strongest performances in the polls so far. This will be a great deal of comfort for Yes’ grassroot support going into the final month of the campaign.