This has been an extraordinary general election campaign in Scotland. Never before has there been such a media focus on the projected returns of Scots MPs on the 7th May. So what does an SNP ‘victory’ in Scotland mean for politics across the UK?
1. We won’t have a Labour majority at Westminster
One thing is certain; the impact of a significant SNP sweep on Thursday will most likely deny Labour the opportunity to form a majority government. This outcome would effectively consign Scottish Labour to the drawing board for the near future. It also reinforces the SNP’s position north of the border as the dominant political force and amplifies their message to an audience that hasn’t previously paid (much close) attention to their cause.
2. ‘Standing up for Scotland’
In the event of a Conservative – Lib Dem or Labour – Lib Dem coalition that commands a majority, the campaign pledge to ‘Stand up for Scotland’ will be useful for positioning ahead of the 2016 Holyrood elections. However, it doesn’t look like either of these scenarios are plausible based on current polling.
3. SNP become central to legislative process
The SNP have already promised to offer the opportunity to ‘lock out the Tories’ to Ed Miliband, which looks like a deal that the Labour leader can’t refuse. The SNP would then give some form of support to a Miliband-led administration – presumably on an issue by issue basis. It looks likely they will be the third biggest party at Westminster, which means significant short money and a more prominent role on select committees. The focus on passing legislation would shift to forming alliances in the Commons to secure majorities. It is in this scenario that a block of SNP MPs would wield most influence.
4. An opportunity to defy expectations
Some candidates (and media outlets) would have you believe that should the SNP have any influence at Westminster, they’ll be hell bent on charting a course for destruction. This would be a very risky move from Nicola Sturgeon, who has said that this election is not about independence. New SNP MPs would work to improve the lot of all working people in a progressive manner at Westminster. To do otherwise would puncture their key credentials at this election. By doing that, they jeopardise the goodwill and patience of the Scottish electorate, who have, remember, overwhelmingly rejected their core political aim.
5. Indyref II off the table
Losing a second referendum in a short period of time would effectively consign the SNP to irrelevance. This is something that the SNP leader is not likely to gamble with anytime soon. However the Conservative party positioning during the campaign has further risked the stability of the union, thus making the First Minister’s job a lot easier on this front. Of course there will be mischief – its politics – but keeping the Scottish electorate on side is much more important ahead of Holyrood 2016.
By Conor Magowan
