At Scotland Votes we’ve been poring over the EU Referendum polling – and the vote seems to be on the move. Here Luke Skipper has a closer look:
In a recent post I suggested that the Leave side of the EU Referendum debate in Scotland may be on the rise. The latest poll by YouGov gives some weight to that but, with the usual caveat that we need more data. Two polls (Feb 1-4, Mar 7-9) just over a month apart, show with “don’t knows” and “won’t votes” removed, the Remain side has decreased from 66 to 61%. A swing of just 6% and you’d end up with the same figures of the Independence referendum.
The Yes campaign would have been very buoyed by those figures with just over a 100 days to go. For some reason YouGov has shifted the age bracket breakdown in their polling between the two polls but looking at the oldest age group – which is +60 in one poll and +65 in the other there is a clear trend. In the earlier poll support for remain was 52 to 34 leave. That is now a margin of error narrow gap of 43 to 41. This should be alarming for the Remain campaign as the turnout will be lower in the referendum and older people are much more likely to vote.
Looking at who voted for particular parties in the 2015 election it appears that those who voted for the SNP and those who voted Labour have both shifted towards ‘leave’ by about 6-7%. However the Tories are really on the move towards Leave. Where before there was a 45/37 split in favour to remain there is now a 34/49 split to leave. Perhaps their conference which happened between the polls had an opposite than desired effect as it is the Leader’s position to remain.
Again I will say there is much more polling needed but it appears the vote is on the move – which will make it all the more interesting as the campaign for Holyrood starts in earnest very soon.