There are just over three weeks to go until the UK goes to the polls again. Thom Watt looks at some of the numbers which will shape the General Election.
In the run up to the big day we will be looking at some of the numbers and patterns that matter before the big day, looking at historical precedents and the potential battle grounds of General Election 2017.
Opinion Polls
If the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that we need to be smarter about using the information we get from opinion polls. They’re not “wrong”, they’re not predictive, they’re a snapshot of a particular group at a particular time.
Despite the supposed disaster for pollsters in 2015, their predictions weren’t massively inaccurate, even with a month to go. The difference a percentage point makes here or there is hugely significant in hindsight, but it’s within margins of error. With four weeks to go, the pollsters across the UK were largely within a percentage point or two of the final result, but all underestimated the Conservatives.
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Polls in Scotland tend to be more stable and more reliable as there are fewer constituencies, fewer variables, and an increasingly partisan voting pattern.
After the supposed failures of polling in the 2015 election, the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s presidential election, it’ll be an interesting addendum to note whether pollsters alter their approach this year.
Managing expectations
While the battle for Number 10 will be the focus for of attention in the next four weeks, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of potential battlegrounds across the country which will help shape the country in the coming years. Not every party aims for government, and success looks very different to each.
The Conservatives and Labour will ultimately be judged on whether they win power, but there are other measures at play. Theresa May’s polls suggest she could secure the kind of majority unseen since the days of Thatcher, and reclaim lost ground in Scotland. Part of the reason for calling the election was to strengthen her mandate for Brexit, and so there is some pressure to deliver not just victory, but comprehensive victory.
The SNP may not manage as triumphant a result as they secured in 2015, when they captured all but three seats in Scotland, but consolidating the vast majority of those positions will be seen as validation of their position.
The Liberal Democrats will be looking for some signs of recovery after a disastrous 2015 election, when they lost 49 of their 57 seats. Gains of any kind would suggest they are past the worst of their troubles, but losses in the previously impenetrable Sheffield Hallam, Southport and particularly Orkney and Shetland would be hugely damaging, especially as the latter is their only remaining foothold in Scotland and has been held for the last 29 years.
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UKIP, who have been such a force in local and European elections in recent years, will simply be looking for some indication that they remain relevant in a post-Brexit UK.
Missing voters
If you were to identify the single biggest demographic to win over in the General Election, who would it be? Over 60s? Disgruntled Brexit voters?
Indeed, if Abstention was a political party, it’d hold the balance of power. We may live in extraordinary times, and at the latest in a series of political crossroads, but it is not compelling the electorate around the UK. The under 35s are the most disenfranchised with the political process. The irony being, they could easily hold the balance of power, given their greater numbers and dominance of social media channels.
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Why are so many ambivalent about the political process? It’s easy to suggest it’s election fatigue, but there has been a downward trend in turnout for the last 70 years across the UK. Interestingly, Scotland bucked the trend in 2015, and had more reason to feel tired with referendums. Indeed, it would appear as if the Independence Referendum galvanised interest in the political process. In almost every other election Scotland has followed the trend set by the UK.
There is a further level of intrigue for the General Election in Scotland. Polls forecast voting intentions across the UK for all of the major political parties, including the Green Party and UKIP. In Scotland, the Green Party are only standing in three seats, and UKIP are only standing in ten constituencies. There are only 30 candidates standing from outside the SNP, Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, down from 110 in 2015. Why is this relevant? There are potentially tens of thousands of voters who opted for the Greens or UKIP in the local elections, but who will not have the chance to vote for them in the General Election. Where will those votes go instead?
Voting intentions in Scotland: Poll of Polls
