Here at ScotlandVotes we have crunched the numbers from the latest Survation poll published today (Thursday 10 April) in the Daily Record on the voting intentions for the next Westminster election in 2015.
Running the voting intention percentages of the 762 respondents who would vote in UK general election – excluding the don’t knows, refused to answer and undecideds – through our Westminster seat predictor tool, the findings reveal a major shake up of Westminster seats in Scotland that will come as a real boost for the SNP as the party heads for its Spring Conference in Aberdeen this weekend.
The results would deliver the following distribution of Westminster seats if these voting intentions
- SNP (39.8%) = 27 seats (up from 6 at present)
- Labour (34.3%) = 28 seats (down from 40 at present)
- Conservatives (15.1%) 2 seats (up from 1 at present)
- Liberal Democrats (5.7%) = 2 seats (down from 11 at present)
This is a radical redistribution of seats that would represent bad news for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Scotland, but a dramatic and positive boost for the SNP and an effective doubling of the representation of the Conservatives in Scotland.
If the actual Westminster vote were to reflect this polling result, it would potentially see a number of high profile MPs losing their seats, including:
High profile seat changes:
- Aberdeen North (Frank Doran - retiring): SNP gain
- Aberdeen South (Dame Anne Begg): SNP gain
- Ayrshire North and Arran (Katy Clark): SNP gain
- Berwick, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Michael Moore): Con gain (John Lamont MSP)
- East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson): SNP gain
- Fife North East (Ming Campbell – retiring): SNP gain
- Gordon (Malcolm Bruce - retiring): SNP gain
- Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander): SNP gain
- Kilmarnock and Loudon (Cathy Jamieson): SNP gain
The full breakdown of findings from Survation can be found here on page 23 of the document which looks at table 20, showing the results to question 10.
