Today’s (Tuesday’s) Courier carried details of Holyrood voting intentions carried out by the polling company Survation.
After punching the numbers into our ScotlandVotes seat predictor, the polling reveals some interesting results.
If these voting intentions were replicated in 2016, the SNP would lose their majority of seats at Holyrood but still remain the Parliament’s largest party. Labour and Lib Dems would both gain seats at Holyrood, with the Greens being biggest winners, quadrupling their membership to eight. According to our seat predictor, however, the Conservatives would lose four seats in 2016 and return to Holyrood with only 11 seats.
The voting intentions for 2016 constituency vote were as followed:
- SNP — 46%
- Labour — 32%
- Conservatives — 13%
- Liberal Democrats — 6%
- Others — 4%
The regional voting intentions were:
- SNP — 38%
- Labour — 30%
- Conservatives — 11%
- Liberal Democrats — 7%
- Scottish Greens — 8%
- Others — 8%
When plugged into our ScotlandVotes Seat Predictor, it gives the following total seats to each party (please note this reflects the 2011 result, not the chamber in its current composition):
| 2011 | 2016 | |
| SNP | 69 | 62 (-7) |
| Labour | 37 | 42 (+5) |
| Conservatives | 15 | 11 (-4) |
| Liberal Democrats | 5 | 6 (+1) |
| Greens | 2 | 8 (+6) |
| Independents | 1 | 0 (-1) |
You can click on the image below to enlarge:
