The Easter weekend saw the publication of two new polls on intentions for voting in September’s independence referendum.
Sunday’s ICM poll, which was trailed in the Scotland on Sunday with the headline “Scotland on the brink of independence”, had the following results:
- Yes = 39%
- No = 42%
- Don’t Know = 19%
By these results, the No vote has seen a seven point fall in two months, with four lost since ICM’s last poll in March. The Yes vote has remained static. Once the Don’t Knows are excluded from the ICM poll, the Yes vote stands at 48%, three points up on ICM’s previous poll and two points above its previous highest reading. This will be no doubt be encouraging for the Yes campaign.
The second poll from the weekend was released by Survation (hot on the heels on their last poll 10 days ago), with the following headline results:
- Yes = 38%
- No = 46%
- Don’t Knows = 16%
There is no movement in the Don’t Know votes whilst the Yes side has gained a point from the No side since the last Survation poll.
The question that is now intriguing pollsters and politicos is whether Yes will make a breakthrough and whether the No vote will continue to slide in the remaining weeks and months.
The referendum is definitely heating up and the next set of polls could be very revealing for the campaign if any trends start to become embedded. We’ll continue to have all the insight and analysis here on Scotland Votes.
ICM polling trend:
Survation polling trend:
