Yesterday evening saw Ipsos MORI publish their latest poll in association with STV. It was Ipsos MORI’s first poll in three months.
Their polling, which took place last week saw Yes stand on 36% (+4 from last Ipsos MORI poll), No on 54% (-3%) and the Don’t Knows on 10% (-1%).
When the Don’t Knows are removed then the result puts Yes on 40% and No on 60%.
The reason why this poll is being celebrated in some Yes circles is that Ipsos MORI have, as Professor John Curtice pointed out “have tended to produce relatively low estimates of the Yes vote”.
Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos MORI Scotland said: “The Yes campaign has made some significant progress in persuading the public in recent months. With just over 100 days to go until the referendum they will hope that this represents momentum that will see support continue to grow up to September 18th. However, it is clear that the No campaign retains a healthy lead and, with the referendum fast approaching, there would need to be significant change in opinions if Yes is going to win.’
As ever, with Ipsos MORI, they reveal some interesting opinions within their other questions. High turnout looks to be a certainty with 82% of those polled saying they are certain to vote in the referendum.
Interestingly, 82% of all voters have decided how they are going to cast their vote come September. This is broadly the same on both sides with 81% of Yes voters certain to vote Yes and 83% of Better Together supporters saying they’ll vote no.
Amongst those that are undecided, 45% are leaning neither way. The remaining 55% is split 32% No, 23% Yes. Increasingly the undecideds will be targeted as September 18 gets closer.
Gender continues to be a key dividing line in the independence campaign. Men are split 46% each on voting intention, whereas 61% of women intend to vote No compared to just 28% voting Yes.
Trend of all polls published in 2014