The latest #indyref poll was published last night. A joint YouGov poll for the The Sun and The Times revealed the latest prediction:
Yes — 42% (+4)
No — 48% (-3)
Don’t Know — 10% (-1)
Clearly, there has been a shift in support to Yes which many will attribute to last week’s events where Alex Salmond ‘won’ the second televised debate.
On the long term YouGov trend, which we’ve been tracking since May 2012, we can see No losing support and Yes gaining. In May 2012, Yes sat on 33% with No at 57%. That 24 point lead has shrunk significantly to just 4 now.
These results also mark Yes’ best result and No’s worst since May 2012. Never before have No dropped below 50% in a YouGov poll and nor had Yes breached 40%. This will cause as much concern for Better Together as it will cause excitement at Yes Scotland HQ.
However, there is still a large caveat: in 68 polls since May 2012, Yes have never led No. And with just two weeks to go, on the basis of this poll, Better Together only need to convert just over 2 out of every 10 undecided voter to their side to secure victory.