Niki Birrell examines a frenetic few days on the #indyref campaign trail
Anyone who’s just returned after a long weekend away without access to the TV or internet would be forgiven for wondering how on earth so much could have changed over the last few days. Indeed it’s highly likely that something dramatic will happen before I’ve finished typing this.
While the phrase “game changer” is often banded about, the developments since Saturday night have truly shifted the tone of debate. While there are many Yes supporters who have long held faith that Scotland would vote for independence come 18 September, most (if not all) in the No camp may have worried about how close the result would be while being fairly certain of victory.
Today the race is wide open.
Last week a YouGov poll showed a dramatic swing to Yes – it put the lead for the No campaign at six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points early last month. While a shock, the No side could draw some comfort from the fact that no poll had yet put Yes in the lead.
Then on Saturday night Rupert Murdoch tweeted that a new poll in the Sunday Times would shock Britain and show that everything is up for grabs. This YouGov poll put Yes on 47% and No on 45%. That represents a five point increase in Yes support since YouGov’s previous poll, conducted less than a week before, while No are down three. Once the Don’t Knows are excluded, Yes are on 51%, No 49%.
While a Panelbase poll released the same day as the explosive YouGov one painted a different picture, with No maintaining a four point lead, the YouGov results dominated.
Cue two days of what I think can be fairly described as feverish excitement or chaos, depending on which side you look at. Below the dramatic headline figures lurked some equally dramatic findings. Both polls found that around one in three of those who voted Labour in 2011 say they will vote Yes – YouGov put this figure at 35%, up from 18% at the beginning of August.
It’s therefore not surprising that yesterday Gordon Brown seemed to decide that enough is enough. After George Osborne made a vague and confusing pledge on Sunday to set out a “plan of action” on the implementation of new powers for Scotland, yesterday it was suddenly announced that the former Prime Minister would set out a timetable that evening during a speech in Loanhead. It wasn’t immediately clear on whose behalf Gordon Brown would be speaking or whether he’d be detailing what powers would be devolved or just setting out a timeline. Meanwhile a new TNS poll was also expected which would confirm whether the race had narrowed to the extent shown by YouGov.
During his speech, Gordon Brown set out a timetable for delivering “nothing less than a modern form of Scottish Home Rule.” His plan has now been endorsed by all three pro-Union parties which means that a common position on what powers will be devolved will be agreed ahead of the next General Election. The agreed timetable is:
- In the event of a No vote, work is to begin on the new legislation the day after the referendum
- A “command paper” is to be published by the present UK government setting out all the proposals by the end of October
- A white paper is to be drawn up by the end of November, after a period of consultation, setting out the proposed new powers for Scotland
- A draft new Scotland Act is to be published on 25 January (Burns Night)
This, Gordon Brown emphasised, would allow whichever party forms the government after next year’s general election to table legislation “immediately upon taking office.”
Meanwhile the TNS poll also showed a major swing to Yes and put both sides in a dead heat on 50% each once Don’t Knows are excluded.
As if that wasn’t enough excitement, today it was announced that this week’s PMQs are being abandoned to allow the UK party leaders to travel to Scotland to campaign.
Alex Salmond has said the campaign to keep the Union was now in “absolute panic” and asserted that we are witnessing the “disintegration” of the No campaign. The flurry of announcements following Sunday’s YouGov poll has certainly given the impression of chaos and panic within Better Together.
The spotlight will be brightly focussed on Scotland from now until the vote as news organisations, politicians and commentators from outwith Scotland have suddenly realised that the No side are not going to walk it next week.
Victory is very much up for grabs by either side. The momentum is undoubtedly with the Yes campaign and Better Together need to pull themselves together for the last week if they are to be in with a chance.
While the excitement levels have reached fever pitch, it’s also worth remembering that if one side scrapes victory, as is now looking likely, it means that almost half of voters will be left deeply unhappy come 19September. This is not ideal when it’s such an important decision being made.